After thunderstorms brought 55 millimetres of rain to Weyburn, and more in many of the surrounding areas, Monday, another system is expected to make its way through southeast Saskatchewan today. 

“The ingredients are coming together,” explained Terri Lang, a meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada. “It’s slightly conditional, meaning everything has to be just right for them to come together, but the potential for severe storms does exist for this afternoon into this evening.” 

The storms are associated with a weak low just south of the border and will extend up into the southeast as it moves, extending into southwest Manitoba as the day goes on. 

While there was a lot of rain in the last storms to come through the region, that may not be the possibility for this system, as it will be a bit higher in the atmosphere due to the lack of moisture. 

“When it comes to severe thunderstorms, we know that they can dump heavy amounts of rain,” Lang added. “Just the nature of these storms – it has to do with parts of the atmosphere that the higher risks are actually large hail and wind gusts.” 

The thunderstorm outlook released by Environment Canada shows hail upwards of 6 centimetres in diameter, and wind gusts of up to 120 km/h could be a part of this storm as well. The outlook also indicates there could be tornadoes in the system as well. 

Lang pointed out that while we have seen a number of tornadoes in the province this year, it isn’t necessarily out of the ordinary. 

“Pretty close to our average number of tornadoes that we get each year,” she stated. “There’s a huge variation in that average – anywhere from the high thirties to just a handful.” She also stressed that the drought conditions of the past few years did mean fewer tornadoes, as severe storms are more prone to develop when there is a lot of moisture in the air. 

Behind the system, southeast Saskatchewan will see temperatures dip slightly below seasonal for parts of the weekend, before warming back up to the average for this time of year next week.