The official forecast for today is calling for a daytime high of 11°. While not quite a record, it will be quite the difference from the -21° that Estevan was at yesterday morning. It will be a swing of nearly 32 degrees in just under 36 hours.  

While that may be the forecast, not everyone agrees with it.  

“I think the forecast is wrong; I think it’s too optimistic,” said Terri Lang. She is a meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada. “Most of the models are forecasting more along the lines of around 6° or 7°, which makes more sense given the weather pattern and the fact that there’s still snow on the ground.” 

When there is still snow on the ground, Lang explained, it bounces away the energy from the sun at a higher rate than whatever is underneath it. 

The reason for the drastic warmup is connected to the weather we have been experiencing so far this week. A ridge of high pressure moved into the province, and the southeast, from the Arctic. This provided the really cold air, but it will be replaced by a system coming up from the south, with the temperatures starting to be noticeable overnight.  

“We’ll see a lot of the places in southern Saskatchewan will actually have what’s called an inverse temperature trend, or reverse temperature trend, meaning it’s going to warm up overnight instead of cool down,” Lang continued.  

The winds will start to pick up from the southeast as things warm up as well. Those winds will bring some clouds in which will help with the overnight warmup. Once the system bringing the milder temperatures passes though, we could be in for a bit of a shock, with snow and slightly below-seasonal temperatures expected for the weekend.  

“We know that there’s a big Colorado low setting up to come through the prairie provinces,” Lang said. “It’s just a matter of which way that Colorado low is going to track, and how much moisture will come to southern Saskatchewan.” 

If the system tracks to the west, there will likely be quite a bit of moisture, Lang continued, while if the system moves to the right it won’t be as much.  

“The models haven’t decided on a solution together yet,” the meteorologist added. “When the models are so far apart in what they think, our confidence is low. When they start coming together in their solution about what’s going to happen, then we can have a better guess at how much is going to come through.” 

You can stay up to date with the latest by visiting the Discover Estevan Weather page.